Anyone who has worked in high risk engineering development projects is well aware of the sinking feeling that hits you when things start going wrong. You can go from Genious to moron, from a well discipline organization to a dysfunctional one in a split second. It all starts when the facts challenge your assumptions, and a slight change in one parameter leads the way to a disastrous path. We at ByThePeople recognized this feeling in the pit of our stomachs while watching game six of the Lakers-Celtics series. The second Kendrick Perkins went down we realized that our previous prediction of a Celtics Win in Six was doomed. Up to that split second, we looked like we had a crystal ball in our prediction of the outcome of the series as everything was playing out as we had predicted. However it all went up in smoke the moment Perkins left the court and we started commiserating about what was going to happen. We realized then that Game 6 was doomed for the Celtics, and a game 7 for the Celtics victory took on unlikely miracle proportion.
We were also surprised when the mainstream media acted like Perkins being out of game 7 was a little thing as Perkins wasn’t deemed to be one amongst the great ones of the sport. Today, the sports media is pointing out the glory of "the Kobe" or the failure of the Big Three to get the 18th banner. However the matchups and dynamics changed the moment Kobe kicked out Perkins leg which changed the tone of the entire series.
In Boston, sports writers are always talking about the Big Three and sometimes the Big Four, but Perkins is the one who does a lot of the dirty work and when he isn’t in the lineup the tiny flaws in Garnet, et al get exposed. The number of little things the giant man does to help the Celtics are numerous. However, for those of you the unbelievers, I think I can clarify the magnitude of what Perkins does for the team by asking this simple question “Does anyone in their right mind expected that Garnet would have had only 3 rebounds in 38 minutes of play in the 7th game if Perkins had been in the game? “It isn’t that Perkins gets a zillion rebounds himself. He might even get a few less than the average starting center. What he does is occupy the other team’s big man in a major way so the other Celtics can get to the ball. In fact sometimes he boxes out an entire side of the court to allow the skinnier Celtics to rebound.
Perkins makes his presence known on team defense. Nobody has the strength to “body up” Perkins in the post. And any low post “pick and roll” has a tendency to break down when the “walking wall” puts half a body on the guy setting the pick and half a body on the guy coming around. There are simply no quick paths to the basket when Perkins is playing well. It is quite possible tall guys like Bynum and Gasol to shoot over Perkins but they aren’t going to go by him to get their own rebound. Many can shoot over him but they don’t get to follow their own shot. I know what it is like to try get by a strong man and it is 10 times harder than trying to beat a “showy athlete” type. Think of running around a building while a second clock is ticking to give yourself a mental image.
Also people pay too much attention to the score early in a game rather than how everyone is playing and whether a team’s strategy is working. In game six, the Celtics were down when Perkins got hurt early in the game. However until the injury, I actually liked how the Celtics were playing with solid defensive rotations, and it felt that the Celtics had a good chance. After his injury I would have to use bad language to describe the Celtics playing style as they were unable to adjust to the loss of Perk and abandoned their team play with disastrous results. In game seven, the Celtics renewed their strategy but the early lead was a mirage in my eyes. The Celtics had a good lead but I could see the Celtics were in big trouble. When they were up by 7 they should have been down 15. However Kobe continued to force shots, miss, and kept the Celtics in the game. In fact it seemed that Kobe was determined to be the hero even if he cost his team the championship. It was simply inexcusable that he didn’t pass the ball. The Celtics were playing good defense and actually continued to play pretty good defense the entire game but it was clear that they simply could not keep the Lakers away from the boards. Nobody on the Celtics could box anyone out and the long armed Lakers simply had a chance at nearly every rebound.
Again it is assumed that great defense means great rebounding but they are not exactly the same thing. Great defense means you make the offensive team shoot a low percentage and/or turn the ball over but the ability to rebound is a different skill. I was a horrible rebounder for most of my life so I learned to quit trying to rebound and instead I tried to “put a body on someone” so my teammates could get the ball. That is what Perkins does but in a giant way.
To Rasheed Wallace’s credit he played pretty good defense for extended minutes even though he was obviously hurting quite badly. However he was unable to release and “go get the ball”. It was his valiant defensive effort that kept the Celtics in the game and Big Baby did all he could to get some boards. As mentioned before, Garnet was a no-show on the boards. He doesn’t have the strength to box out and still “go get the ball”. In addition, if Perkins was in the game there is no way a skinny guy like Kobe gets 15 rebounds or a skinny Gasol gets 9 offensive rebounds. It is one thing to go up against Garnet or Wallace and another thing to have the “walking wall” but a body on you. Many years ago I played in a top pickup game where I dominated the defensive boards. However like I said earlier, I was a horrible rebounder (actually the word atrocious springs to mind). What happened in that game is that my teammates boxed everyone out and left me free to go get the ball. It was one of the most remarkable experiences of my life and showed how good your teammates can make you look. That is what Perkins does for his teammates every game.
I also notice that people were stating how much more of an offensive threat Wallace was than Perkins. That is true but there is also another factor. When you are guarding Wallace you leave the hoop to get in his face. However with Perkins you never can leave the hoop because you don’t ever want Perk to have inside position for an offensive rebound. So the point is that you can open up the middle two ways. You can draw you opponent away from the basket because you shoot well or you keep them under the basket because they are afraid to leave you alone. Wallace uses the first method, Perkins the second. Many people appreciate the first method but neglect to understand the second.
I will bring up one more aspect with another simple question “If you are guarding Ray Allen who is running the baseline, would you rather run into a pick set by Garnet or one by Perkins? The big three shooting percentage wasn’t helped by Perkins leaving the game.
The point of this story is to remind people in general and Boston fans in particular that Perkin’s contract is up in another year and he will be looking for a significant raise. When there is all the talk about signing Pierce and Ray Allen and the bench players, they should remember the guy with the scowl on his face. And most importantly they should remember the last two games when he wasn’t in the game. While you are thinking about that, we at ByThePeople will be hoping for a future moron to genius moment which also sometimes happens in development. Edison is an engineering hero not just for his successes but his ability to deal with his failures. Connect…The…Dots Boston fans you need Perkins more than you think.
I pick the Celtics in 6 why don’t you?
ByThePeople Sports Editorial Staff
The vast majority of NBA playoff stories that will be written in the next two weeks will be about the heavily favored, more physically talented Lakers and how they will dominate the older than dirt Celtics. If it were not for the simple fact that basketball is a team sport, they would be right. However, you only have to look at the Cavaliers and the Magic to see that the teams with the most individual talent often lose. Teamwork gives you a split second advantage that can overcome a slight talent mismatch. The ability to overplay a foot or two or to make the pass to a spot rather than waiting for teammate to clear makes all the difference. You can look ridiculously stupid if you are playing “team ball” and your teammate doesn’t rotate on defense or doesn’t make the right cut. Everyone in the stands will be looking at you if your man drives untouched to the basket or the passed ball goes out of bounds with no one around. Many top players fail to play team ball because they are unwilling to look stupid, but frankly, that is the very meaning of a “team”. The willingness of individual players to look like fools while the entire team laughs all the way to the championship.
Now, it is well known that the NBA is full of “divas”. The likes of Lebron James, Dwight Howard, and Kobe Bryant have delighted us this and previous seasons with their raw athletic ability and basketball skills. They are the dominant players, and hence, it is not unusual that most analysts often favor their teams against matchups such as the one the Lakers and Celtics are about to embark upon. However, the Cavaliers and Magic fell into elimination against an older less diva rich team this year, the Celtics. The question is why? Well, top players are used to dominating via their skills and not their brains. They often play what I call solo basketball. Less skill players on the other hand must use their brains and teamwork in order to compensate for their lack of skills as compared to the top divas. Older top players often do the same for similar reasons, and that is why the Celtics will probably win this series in six games.
For the record, I am an old, fat, super slow, short guy who lost whatever minimal talent he had decades ago. However with the right teammates, I still can contribute and win basketball games against vastly superior younger talent. You see, good teamwork can make you look much better than you are, and bad teamwork can make you look much worse. Every basketball player that I know, especially older players, have a few things up their alley that can truly surprise you. In my case, as a basketball player, I still have a few favorite shots that I will make no matter what. I also have a bit of side to side quickness, and certainly I can read the court quite well (basically reading a court means you can anticipate where all the players will go before they actually make their cuts)... My partner and I, in most of my two on two pickup games Saturday nights, are overmatched physically and skill-wise. Anyone walking into the gym of the YMCA on a Saturday at 7 PM would expect that the team composed of the old fat guy and the old bald guy would get destroyed by a 6’5 250+ stud and his quick partner. However the “old guys” consistently and easily win by playing as a team. We pass the ball, roll, and screen in such a way that each one of us will be able to take his best shots while making the young studs take their second best. With aware teammates, a player can overplay by a couple of feet more than normal because the backside is going to provide help, can take drives to the hoop he wouldn’t normally take because his partner will give him an outlet if he gets into trouble and can shoot a high percentage because he knows when the ball is coming his way under all circumstances. Even an ultra-slow guy like me can get his shot off in an instant if he knows exactly when the ball is coming because the tiny hesitation that is normally there isn’t. This is the lesson that the Celtics have learned throughout the years, and this is the lesson that allowed them to beat a clearly “talent” superior team in 2008.
The Analysis:
It takes little imagination to see how the Celtics can repeat the 2008 win this year over the Lakers by doing what we old guys do in the court but in a much bigger way. In this context, the Celtics have the following advantages. Rondo will be the quickest point guard on the Finals and one of the best defenders in the league. It is difficult to give a good pass in the post when the long armed Rondo is hounding you. Ray Allen still has the sweetest outside shot in the league and he is one of the best foul shooters in the league. The term “spread the floor” has Ray Allen in mind. Anyone leaving him to double team is simply stupid. Pierce is one of the most flexible players in the league as he can contribute to the team effort whether he scores 8 points or 35 points, unlike Bryant. On any given day Pierce can rebound, play individual or team defense, and handle the ball as a playmaker depending of what the “team” requires of him that day. Garnett can still play defense with anyone and still can be a big time scorer if ignored. Perkins can bang with anyone and will sacrifice his body and his game to cover for his teammates. The “defenders” on the Celtics can count on Perkins making up for a multitude of sins. And Tony Allen, Big Baby and Rasheed Wallace can all play serious team defense and can score and not score depending upon what is needed. Many teams can take away the first option, but the Celtics can take away the second and sometimes the third option as well. Unless you seriously commit to moving the ball, the Celtics rotation will most likely be there. And it is difficult to win a NBA game with quick jump shots no matter how well you shoot.
On the other side of the court, the Lakers simply cannot match the Celtics when it comes to team defense nor are they as flexible. Kobe can obviously dominate anyone but the Celtics have endless defenders as Ray Allen, Pierce, Tony Allen, Daniels and Finley will all guard Kobe somewhere alone this series. Once you get past Kobe, their next best player is Gasol. However, he will be guarded by Perkins, KG, Ray Wallace and maybe even Big Baby and Sheldon Williams. In other words the Celtics won’t worry about fouls. That leads us to their third best payer, Bynum. Gimp-kneed Bynum will not dominate when confronted by Perkins, et al beating on him. Gasol. Bynum, and Odom are used to being physically dominating. However Perkins is stronger than anyone the Lakers have met this season, and the long arms of KG and Ray Wallace can seriously interrupt even a tall guy’s shots.
Today, several days before the start of the series, I can describe how the Celtics will react if something is taken away offensively from their game. They simply will change strategy and move on to the next guy. On any given night, the scoring stars change and no one gets upset. And that is true of everyone on the roster. They are a team, not a bunch of divas in search of individual glory, and that is precisely their competitive advantage. The only thing that upsets the Celtics is if you don’t pass the ball to the open man and Rondo and Pierce always make sure that this doesn’t happen.
Having said this, a careful analysis may conclude that the Lakers have similar strengths. However, the big unknown of this series is whether they will play together as a team when confronted by the Celtics defense or would they self-destruct and start playing “solo” basketball. I for one believe the latter. The Lakers have not as of yet faced adversity in the playoffs with someone breathing down their necks. Kobe seems to have an on-off switch where he will dominate offensively or alternatively try to be a facilitator and simply pass the ball. However on a true team, he needs to do both. Gasol can be ineffective if someone doesn’t get him the ball. Finally, Odom has been known to simply disappear. Once you get past their sixth man (Odom), the Celtics have an advantage in talent, and this is where the Lakers will fail. Phoenix showed what a solid bench can do against them, hence; do not be surprised when something much worse happens...
It is clear how the Celtics will attack the Lakers as they will want to see if Bynum is really ready to compete and if Fisher can handle Rondo in the open court. Ray Allen will spot up to spread the court and we will see if Artest really can handle Pierce without help. They will totally move the ball to the next guy if something doesn’t work. It will be interesting to see what happens with the Lakers if Gasol doesn’t physically dominate and if Kobe wears down with the endless defenders the Celtics will run at him. The Lakers will be favored. However when you are “old school” you always want to see if “talent” will play together before passing judgment. If the Celtics can win one of the first two games in Lakerland, then, I like their chances as I don’t see a lot of teamwork in the Lakers when the collar gets a bit tighter. Connect…The…Dots… The Celtics win in six.
